The 2018 Vuelta a Espana has attracted a field of the world’s best general classification racers, but no clear favorite. Riders who would ordinarily dominate pre-race predictions—such as Richie Porte, Vincenzo Nibali, and Nairo Quintana—have prognosticators (ahem, us) hedging.

Porte’s notoriously crash-prone in grand tours, including a race-ending fall in this year’s cobblestone stage of the Tour de France.

The back injury Nibali suffered during the Tour’s Alpe d’Huez stage required surgery, and subsequent time off the bike.

As for Quintana, the quiet Columbian has fallen out of favor due to a dry-run of results. He’s failed to land a grand tour podium in (gasp) his last three tries.

With no clear front-runner for this year’s Vuelta, we offer five riders who’ve been ranked a bit further down the odds lists—but could still roll away with a win in Spain.

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5. Emanuel Buchmann (Bora-Hansgrohe)

The 25 year old German has been steadily climbing up the GC ladder over the last two years. Following a top 15 finish at the Tour de France in 2017, Buchmann has placed in the top ten at every World Tour stage race in which he lined up in 2018. (10th at Abu Dhabi, 4th at Itzulia Basque Country, 9th at the Tour de Romandie, 6th at the Criterium du Dauphine, and 7th at the Tour of Poland.)

Could the Vuelta be his break-out ride at a grand tour? As one of the few contenders who hasn’t ridden a three-week race this year, he'll arrive fresh.

4. Wilco Kelderman (Team Sunweb)

The severity of Kelderman’s crash at the Dutch National Championship can’t be diminished. The 27 year old racer bent the metal bar that was bolted to his collarbone following a crash earlier in the spring, at Tirreno-Adriatico. The injury required another surgery and recovery, making for a rough season. 

Still, prior to the crash Kelderman was clearly close to the form that took him to fourth place overall at the 2017 Vuelta a Espana. He placed 5th overall at the Tour de Suisse, less than a minute and a half behind winner Richie Porte.

Sunweb depleted the majority of their grand tour domestiques carrying Tom Dumoulin to second place at both the Giro and the Tour, so Kelderman’s support is limited. But there's little pressure on Kelderman to secure a top result, which may aid the Dutchman.

3. Ilnur Zakarin (Katusha-Alpecin)

The tall Russian came into this year’s Tour de France with high hopes and came away with a ninth place finish, an impressive result but likely below Zakarin's own expectations. Zakarin has long been knocking at the door of a grand tour victory. In 2017, he placed fifth at the Giro d’Italia and third at the Vuelta a Espana.

But has he recovered from an incredibly demanding Tour in time to contend for the Vuelta? American Ian Boswell will ride in support of Zakarin at the Vuelta, as will experienced all-arounder Jose Goncalves. The Vuelta’s wide-open field of favorites may conclude with Zakarin's first grand tour victory.

2. Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ)

Stage 20 of the 2018 Giro d’Italia brought heartbreak for Thibaut Pinot. The Frenchman was on the cusp of securing a podium finish when he came unraveled on the final day in the mountains and fell off the back of the field. He dropped out of the race and was later hospitalized with pneumonia. Pinot had planned on racing both the Giro and Tour de France in 2018, but was forced to skip the Tour as he recovered from the illness.

It's clear Pinot possesses the talent to win a grand tour, but can he avoid the issues that have plagued him in the past? Inconsistent time trialing and erratic descending have long been Pinot's Achilles heel. The Vuelta’s mountainous route and nine summit finishes will favor the French climber, but he’ll also need to conquer the technical terrain and 32km time trial.

1. Rigoberto Uran (EF Education First-Drapac p/b Cannondale)

Count Uran amongst the GC contenders whose hopes were dashed by a crash at the Tour de France. Uran survived the treacherous first week of the Tour  within reach of the podium, only to fade on the first mountain day as he suffered from injuries incurred on the cobblestone stage to Roubaix. EF Education First quickly pulled the plug on Uran’s race and focused their efforts on the Vuelta.

You could argue the team Uran brings to Spain is as strong as the one he had in France, with talented Canadian climber Michael Woods for support in the mountains. Uran often rides well late in the season—he finished 6th at Clasíca San Sebastían—and this year’s Vuelta course is well suited to his all-around talents.